All ideas having large consequences are always simple

 

We all are aware of Albert Einstein’s formula E=mc², which unified mass and energy which were seen as unrelated and distinct concepts earlier. This simple idea became the foundation for nuclear energy, quantum physics, space-time theory, not only transforming the modern science but also the geopolitics. This might be one among the many such simple ideas, that has triggered “domino effect” i.e. one consequence leading to another, either good or bad, some intended while others unintended, some lasting while others lapsed. But this reiterates the quote well – all ideas with large consequences are always simple.

In this line of thought, one often wonders why is it always a simple idea that begins the domino effect of consequences? Are these consequences always predicted before? Is there a way to forecast such consequences? In this essay, we will try to explore all these questions to gradually build a deeper understanding.

Let us begin by trying to explore on why simple ideas become consequential.

When we think on such a question, the answer is actually simple! Simple ideas are those that are easily understood by any common person. It can easily be implemented and practiced in their life. Those kinds of ideas are the ones that become sustainable. One such simple yet consequential idea was the concept of Satyagraha given by Gandhiji. It literally means to be truthful and follow Ahimsa, that is non-violence. But who would have imagined besides Gandhiji and few others that it could become a major push factor for the Indian independence in 1947. That is the power of simple ideas when it reaches people and gains their acceptance!

Another reason for a simple idea for being that consequential is because of the butterfly effect they create. Butterfly effect is like a chain reaction caused by one simple moment or idea. Another simple example for one to understand this concept is the invention of wheels. Everyone knows how the invention of wheels was inspired by the idea of rolling the stones from slopes, may be hills. But did that end up only with the invention of wheels? Certainly not! Wheels led to the transportation, which in turn led to globalization, which in turn led to awareness of the world and beyond, further fuelling many inventions.

This butterfly effect also tells us that nothing in this universe goes unheard, un-viewed, or in vain!

Lord Krishna explained this concept in Mahabharata. He explained how Bhishma's simple resolve to sacrifice the throne to pacify his stepmother, led to a series of miseries and clash for throne, finally leading into one of the deadliest battles painted in blood, the Mahabharata War. But one can argue that Bhishma did not predict such a consequence. If he predicted it earlier, he might have prevented such a massacre. That brings us to the next question. Can we always predict all the consequences of our simple idea?

The answer is both yes and no. Most of the times, these simple ideas are pondered without knowing their consequences at large.

Unintended, yet impactful

            One such instance where people can recall is the story of Newton and the Apple. He proposed the law of gravitation as a simple idea behind the falling of Apple. But I am sure that even he would not have imagined that we would send rockets to moon, satellites to space, and humans to outer world, building upon that idea! It is a matter of fascination that all these space missions were born out of his simple idea of gravitation.

But it is also to be noted that every time these consequences were not this sweet, we saw bitter experiences too in our world. One such instance was during the aftermath of World War I. The harsh treaty of Versailles was imposed on the Germany as a retaliation by the Allied powers, that is the winning countries of World War I. But they did not imagine that it would create even worse war in World War II. The reason for the rise of Hitler's Nazi army was majorly attributed to the harsh conditions this treaty made Germany to endure. But this was totally unintended and was unpredicted at that time.

But that does not mean that every consequence of simple ideas can't be predicted. While history warns us about unintended consequences, there are also cases where our gut feelings enriched by our worldly experiences and the awareness of the surroundings can help us forecast certain consequences. One such instance was the invention of light bulb by Thomas Alva Edison. His gut feeling forecasted a light revolution that can replace the dirty, dangerous kerosene lamp that almost lit up houses and offices with a safe and affordable electric light. And we know how this simple idea illuminated the global society fuelling many more worldly events.

While gut feelings can give one a vision of future, it can at times manifest as fear to warn against the dangerous consequences of a simple idea. The fear of scientist Oppenheimer that his Manhattan Project might trigger the nuclear arms race instead of nuclear deterrence was a valid one, indeed becoming the reality in the present global stage. But this consequence despite an unintended one and was not desired by him, it was indeed a predicted one as know from his famous likes, “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds”. That brings us to the next question. How can we predict the unintended consequences to minimize harm?

Minimize unintended negatives

            It is easier said than done as to even predict those unintended consequences, one needs to face a series of challenges. Let us unfold them with an example of governance policy idea of building a dam.

The first challenge is the availability and accuracy of data related to construction of dam and on the variables that affect such an activity. This includes the climatic patterns of that area, water availability and distribution from the river, forest area required, potential impacts on the ecosystem, etc. Even if accurate data for these are available, the interplay with next variable makes this challenge more dynamic – the stakeholders. A policy needs to look at who are the intended beneficiaries, who gets displaced (mostly the forest dwellers and tribes), how to rehabilitate them, how it affects the birds and animals, how it affects the forest cover and the ecosystem, etc.

Thus, despite being a simple idea, it has to go through such an elaborate forecasting and considerations in order to make that idea to thrive sustainably.

In this effort of forecasting possibilities to minimize harm, the AI and data science shows enormous promise. These models can help to predict countless possibilities, thus making the decisions data-driven. And further adding that with feedback loop mechanism helps to evolve ideas as per ground realities constantly and reduce forecast errors, thus largely preventing the negative consequences.

Besides the governance policies, even the individual decisions also have many impacts that needs the harm minimized. So, to make one's simple idea more positively impactful, it must be driven by selflessness and aimed at the common good for all. This was successfully demonstrated by Ashoka 2300 years ago via his Dhamma concept (Justice) where he propagated ethical values aiming to build a harmonious society. So, his simple & altruistic principle helped to maintain harmony in his empire.

Hence simple ideas are always the ones that lead to large consequences. Such idea’s simplicity leads to further building upon them triggering a butterfly effect. Though the consequences cannot be fully predicted always, the unintended ones can be minimized if given due consideration. Such minimization not only leads to less harm but also to more sustainability of that idea. And if everyone is truly altruistic, then the fruit of such idea will most likely be sweet for all of humanity. Thus, it is important to remember Krishna’s advice on these lines before we take any simple decision – Nishkama Karma, i.e. selfless action!

Let me know your take on this topic in the comment section!